Weakened Trump may ease US pressure on India in trade talks, but uncertainty

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Loss of Congressional backing could constrain President’s ability to push unilateral tariff measures, though bipartisan support for protectionism may limit a trade policy shift, say experts

By Amiti Sen

Updated - November 04, 2026 at 04:45 PM. | New Delhi, November 4

US President Donald Trump | Photo Credit: KEVIN LAMARQUE

The outcome of the US mid-term elections, which has weakened President Donald Trump politically, could alter the balance of pressure in India-US trade negotiations, giving New Delhi greater room to resist Washington’s demands on tariffs and market access, particularly in agriculture, official sources and experts said. However, uncertainty over US trade policy and its implications for India’s energy security and strategic interests is likely to persist, as Trump retains executive powers to pursue unilateral measures despite losing Congressional support.

“Trump has been significantly weakened. Earlier, he had the backing of the House of Representatives, the Senate as well as his own Presidency. Now, he may only have his Presidency left. His attitude towards trading partners, including India, is expected to soften somewhat as he would be more interested in winning friends. There will be less pressure on countries like India to do his bidding, and they would not need to make as much effort to say no to him,” an official source said.

Power shift

Trade expert Biswajit Dhar said the results would end Trump’s ability to dictate terms to trading partners from a position of political dominance, while bringing greater Congressional scrutiny of his decisions.

“Trump so far was in a dominant position, trying to dictate terms to trade partners. Clearly, that is not going to happen now. He will not have that kind of control,” Dhar said, adding that Congressional committees could scrutinise the economic impact of tariffs and import restrictions and use budgetary powers to extract concessions from the administration.

While Democrats have historically been more protectionist than Republicans, Dhar said it remained to be seen whether this would translate into a significant shift in trade policy. He pointed out that the Biden administration had retained several Trump-era positions, including the US blockade of appointments to the WTO Appellate Body. However, Biden had been more accommodative towards partners through initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the Quad, aimed partly at countering China.

Former Ambassador Anil Trigunayat said the results reflected public disapproval of Trump’s policies, including extensive tariffs and the impact of the West Asia conflict on ordinary Americans, small businesses and employees. “Trump could continue using executive orders to circumvent Congressional opposition, but tariffs, immigration and unilateral foreign policy decisions would face greater checks and balances,” he said.

For India, Trigunayat said, the implications could be significant given that New Delhi had borne the brunt of Trump’s unilateral approach despite being a strategic partner. He hoped the political setback would constrain measures affecting India’s energy security, including the threat of sanctions over Russian oil purchases.

Protectionist trend

Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), warned against expecting a change in Washington’s overall trade direction. Both Democrats and Republicans increasingly support economic nationalism, domestic manufacturing and protective tariffs, particularly to safeguard American workers, he said.

“Trump could continue using existing executive authorities, including Sections 232 and 301, along with Treasury sanctions and USTR measures, to exert trade pressure without fresh Congressional approval”, Srivastava said. With his foreign policy leverage against Russia, China and Iran facing limitations, he may also seek a quick trade deal with India to demonstrate American influence.

Srivastava cautioned New Delhi against mistaking relief from threatened tariffs for a balanced agreement, arguing that any deal must secure enforceable reciprocal concessions and preserve India’s freedom to protect its energy security and development priorities.

Published on November 4, 2026

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